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These 8 States Will Have the Next Deadly Coronavirus Outbreak

A new model forecasts increases in these future hotspots.

According to a model from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, the forecast of expected deaths as a result of COVID-19 continues to climb as a result of the latest surge of cases around the country. In just a week the projected estimate of total lives lost by November 2020 has jumped by at least 16,000 to 2224,000. Currently the death toll stands at 136,466.

"That increase in our forecasts is being driven by the big upsurge in you know the ones we know about in Florida, Texas, Arizona, California," said the chair of IHME, Dr. Chris Murray, per CNN. However, he maintains there are other states that are "driving up our forecasts, as we look ahead" as well. "There's a longer list of states where deaths are going up, as well as hospitalizations," he points out. 



French Quarter architecture in New Orleans, Louisiana

Louisiana experienced an early outbreak of COVID-19, which subsided. However after reopening they have experienced a disturbing surge in cases and even hospitalizations. An analysis this week by The Times-Picayune and The Advocate of Louisiana Department of Health data shows that hospitalizations have spiked 130% compared to a month ago. Over the weekend Gov. John Bel Edwards on Saturday ordered all residents to wear a mask in public and closed all bars in hopes to flatten the curve. 



Louisville, Kentucky, USA skyline on the river.

On Tuesday, Kentucky Gov. Beshear revealed there were 576 new COVID-19 cases in the state —the second-highest number of cases so far—bringing their total to 20,223 cases. "Today's report shows we are certainly in a time of escalating cases. And our actions over these next 10 days to 14 days—really through the next 30 days that we have put this face covering requirement out—are going to determine if we continue to be a leader, if we continue to be one of the best states in the country, or if we go the route of Arizona, which is now requesting giant freezer trucks because their morgues are being overrun," he said during a press conference. "It depends on our willingness to come together and do the right thing, and today should be just one more wake-up call that we've got to do it now." Some experts maintain that Kentucky's death rate will soon increase as well in the next few weeks. 



Jackson, Mississippi, USA skyline over the Capitol Building.

In Mississippi, coronavirus has directly impacted politics. A major outbreak linked to the state capitol has infected. At least 30 Mississippi legislators and 11 other people who work there, according to Dr. Thomas Dobbs, the state's health official. The New York Times also reports that some Mississippi intensive care units are at capacity as the number of infections continues to grow—likely meaning that the number of daily deaths is going to follow. 



Nevada experienced a record high of new cases on Tuesday—1,104 new cases of COVID-19 statewide, bringing the total to nearly 30,000 since the pandemic began — which the state attributes to July 4 celebrations. "Nevada continues to see a resurgence in COVID-19 hospitalizations," Caleb Cage, state pandemic response chief, said. "We believe that many of the new cases in this recent surge are coming from the Fourth of July weekend," Cage said. Less than a week ago Gov. Steve Sisolak responded to a surge in reported cases by closing bars and restaurants in the Las Vegas and Reno areas and in five other counties. The state also has a strict mask policy, however, many residents are revolting against it. 


New Mexico

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA downtown skyline at dusk.

New Mexico has experienced a recent spike of cases, which stems from the younger population. "What you can see is there's been a significant drop in over 30 which of course adds up to the significant increase in people under 30, but we went from one eighth, you know an 8 to 1 ratio of people over 30 to under 30, and now we're at a 2 to 1 ratio, so a significant increase in cases in younger people this week," Dr. David Scrase, New Mexico Human Services Department, explained earlier in the month. As a result, this week the state rolled back on their reopening strategy, restricting indoor dining at restaurants and breweries. Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham also halted high school sports and closed state parks to out-of-state residents.


South Carolina

Charleston, South Carolina, USA town skyline.

On Saturday, South Carolina, one of the first states to reopen, announced its highest single-day total for coronavirus cases with over 2,200 infections. According to state officials, over 22 percent of tests in the state came back positive on Friday—the highest positivity rate for the state yet. The health care system is so strained that the New York Times reports the National Guard troops are expected to be called in to help hospitals in the state handle the increased strain. Additionally, the Department of Health and Environmental Control recently reported its first pediatric death of a child younger than 5.




On Tuesday, the southern state of Tennessee reported 1,500 new cases of COVID-19 in Tennessee, bringing their pandemic total to more than 66,700. Health experts are most worried about the state's increasing hospitalization rate, as they experience one of its largest single-day increases in hospitalizations since the pandemic began, with 94 reported. This often signals that deaths will follow. The capital city of Nashville has been hit particularly hard, experiencing their highest single-day increases in COVID-19 cases on Tuesday. "The numbers we're seeing make it clear that we will not be able to leave our modified phase two," Mayor John Cooper said during the city's public health briefing. As part of their rolled back reopening, bars in the city remain closed until at least the end of the month. However, in the last two weeks their numbers have continued to climb. 



Downtown Salt Lake City skyline Utah in USA.

It has been a deadly week in Utah as a result of COVID-19. According to the Utah Department of Health, the state set a record on Tuesday for the highest number of reported deaths since the pandemic started, with ten people losing their lives. Additionally, about 65% of the state's ICU beds were occupied and just under 45% of the state's non-ICU beds are occupied. 


How To Stay Healthy in Your State

Washing hands rubbing with soap man for corona virus prevention, hygiene to stop spreading coronavirus.

Wear your face mask, wash your hands frequently, avoid crowds, practice social distancing, monitor your health, and to get through this pandemic at your healthiest, don't miss these 37 Places You're Most Likely to Catch Coronavirus.

Leah Groth
Leah Groth has decades of experience covering all things health, wellness and fitness related. Read more about Leah
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